Is There a Side Bias for the Space Topic Yet?

2011-10-12T23:19:00.000-05:00

In response to a post on Debate Central's website. Brian Rubie was live tweeting a debate at Greenhill in the outrounds in which one of the arguments presented in the debate totaled to results sheet at Greenhill and claimed that there was a side bias on the topic. This lead me to invesitgate with the results that were available to me if there was a side bias on the topic. I did find some intersting results. Numbers being what they are, it is always up for interpretation, but there are some things about debate which makes us want to spin the numbers anyway that we can. I will break down the results by tournaments that I have statistics for and in total, along with some fun spin about what might play a role for the numbers that we have seen in debates.

Wake Forrest Early Bird:
The outrounds at Wake were split 14 AFF wins and 14 NEG wins (with the side results for finals unknown).
Round 1 - 25 AFF v 29 NEG
Round 2 - 25 AFF v 29 NEG
Round 3 - 30 AFF v 24 NEG
Round 4 - 28 AFF v 26 NEG
Round 5 - 26 AFF v 28 NEG
Round 6 - 26 AFF v 28 NEG
TOTAL - 160 AFF v 178 NEG

Grapevine:
Outrounds: 5 AFF v 5 NEG
Round 1 - 9 AFF v 26 NEG
Round 2 - 23 AFF v 12 NEG
Round 3 - 15 AFF v 20 NEG
Round 4 - 15 AFF v 20 NEG
Round 5 - 23 AFF v 12 NEG
Total - 90 AFF v 95 NEG

Greenhill Round Robin:
Total - 69 AFF v 43 NEG

Greenhill:
Outrounds 18 AFF v 12 NEG
Round 1 - 31 AFF v 20 NEG
Round 2 - 24 AFF v 27 NEG
Round 3 - 28 AFF v 23 NEG
Round 4 - 26 AFF v 25 NEG
Round 5 - 25 AFF v 26 NEG
Round 6 - 25 AFF v 26 NEG
Total - 177 AFF v 159 NEG

Samford:
Outrounds: Unknown
Round 1 - 4 AFF v 7 NEG
Round 2 - 5 AFF v 6 NEG
Round 3 - 6 AFF v 5 NEG
Round 4 - 4 AFF v 7 NEG
Round 5 - 3 AFF v 8 NEG
Round 6 - 5 AFF v 6 NEG
Total - 27 AFF v 39 NEG

Valley:
Outrounds: Sides Unknown
Round 1 - 19 AFF v 22 NEG
Round 2 - 21 AFF v 20 NEG
Round 3 - 23 AFF v 18 NEG
Round 4 - 24 AFF v 17 NEG
Round 5 - 27 AFF v 14 NEG
Round 6 - 12 AFF v 29 NEG
Total - 126 AFF v 120 NEG

Georgetown:
Outrounds: Sides Unknown
Round 1 - 19 AFF v 16 NEG
Round 2 - 9 AFF v 26 NEG
Round 3 - 20 AFF v 15 NEG
Round 4 - 18 AFF v 17 NEG
Round 5 - 23 AFF v 12 NEG
Round 6 - 16 AFF v 19 NEG
Total - 105 AFF v 105 NEG

Overall Totals: 754 AFF v 748 NEG

Looking at the total numbers, the affirmative has a very slight margin of victory over the negative. This margin is negligible to indicate that there is no real bias for the affirmative over the negative to date. But, these can be deciving. These numbers include the first and second round which are preset rounds. Looking at totals that only include power matching of some sort would be a more indicative indicator becuase it would place like teams (in theory based on record) against one another. Looking at the side bias in this manner removes the quality of team question and places debates in a more focused light. If you being with round 3 for these tournaments and through outrounds (for those results that are available) you might end up with a different total. I have left Samford off of this calculation because there were only 22 teams at the tournament and also the Greenhill Round Robin.

Looking at the results this way expands the affirmative lead. 469 AFF v 430 NEG. The reality is that the side bias favors the affirmative even more so when you place like teams against one another. The question then becomes why is there a side bias for the affirmative.

The Unconventional Overview

Is There a Side Bias for the Space Topic Yet?